Canadian Housing Market in 2026: The Shift in Toronto Real Estate
Here’s a breakdown of the outlook for the Canadian housing market in 2026 — and what it means for you as a residential realtor in the Toronto area targeting buyers and sellers. 2026 will be better than 2025, as more buyers are getting into the market. However, with the ongoing trade war, economic uncertainty and sticky inflation, 2026 will see little to modest growth in real estate. Very expensive markets like the GTA will continue to face challenges going into next year, which could be a buying opportunity for first time home buyers.
Overall Canadian Perspective
According to Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), home resales in Canada are expected to rebound by about 7.9 % in 2026 (to ~504,100 units) after a weaker 2025. (RBC)
That said, RBC expects national average home prices to decline by ~0.7 % in 2026, largely due to weakness in Ontario and British Columbia. (RBC)
On the other hand, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) forecasts a 3.2 % increase in the national average home price in 2026 (to approx. CAD $698,600) and a ~7.7 % rebound in sales. (CREA)
According to TD Bank Group Economics, 2026 will see modest recovery, but growth will be very region-specific; they expect the national market to be “roughly in balanced territory.” (TD Economics)
Bottom line for Canada overall:
We’re looking at a tentative recovery in sales volume in 2026, but price growth will be weak and uneven. In high-cost markets (Ontario, B.C.) prices may still dip or flatten; in more affordable markets there may be modest gains. Specific Outlook for the Greater Toronto Area. (GTA)
In the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) catchment, home prices have been showing declines: in Q3 2025 the aggregate home price in the GTA was down 3.5 % year- over-year.
For condos in the GTA, the outlook is weaker: Greater Toronto Area condo prices are under pressure, with ample supply and slower demand. The Toronto‑Dominion (TD) Bank Group condo market report suggests 2026 may bring “modestly improved fortunes,” but a strong rebound is unlikely. (TD Economics) & Central 1’s Ontario forecast shows home values in some areas (Toronto, Hamilton-Niagara, London) already declining ~5–10 % through 2024 and into 2025. (central1.com)
RBC highlights that Ontario and B.C. will face the steepest price drops because of inventory imbalances. (RBC)
What this means for your market (Toronto and area):
The buyer’s market: More inventory, slower sales and extended days on market. Sellers will need to be more realistic on pricing and concessions.
Condos may be a softer segment; detached and townhouses may hold up better but will not see rapid growth.
Affordability remains a big constraint: high interest rates (relatively), large portion of income toward housing, etc. For renters thinking of buying: This may be the window where becoming a buyer is more plausible—less frenetic competition—if they’re well prepared.
