Not long ago, boredom was simply part of daily life. Before smartphones and social media, our attention wasn’t constantly pulled in multiple directions. Today, information is immediate, markets are accessible in seconds, and investment decisions can be made with a swipe. That cultural shift has influenced how many people approach investing.
Online platforms have made markets more accessible than ever — a positive development in many respects. At the same time, average holding periods have shortened dramatically. Investors now often measure performance in weeks or months rather than years. For some, reacting quickly feels natural in an always-connected world.
This raises an important question: are market cycles themselves getting shorter, or have we simply grown accustomed to quick recoveries?
For more than a decade, market pullbacks were often followed by relatively swift rebounds. Policymakers provided significant monetary and fiscal support during periods of stress, helping cushion downturns. As a result, many investors experienced a long stretch where “buying the dip” was consistently rewarded.
History, however, reminds us that not all recoveries are immediate. Over the past 50 years, markets have moved through multiple bull and bear cycles. Some downturns have been brief; others have taken years to fully resolve. Structural challenges — such as elevated debt levels or economic imbalances — tend to work themselves out gradually, not overnight.
The Global Financial Crisis offers a useful perspective. Major market indices declined significantly, and it took patience before prior highs were regained. Many investors who stayed disciplined were ultimately rewarded, but the journey required resilience and a long-term view.
This is not meant to create concern about the near term. Corporate earnings remain solid, household balance sheets are generally healthy, and financial institutions are better capitalized today than in past cycles. Still, the broader lesson is timeless: markets move in cycles, and patience continues to matter.
If we were to experience a more prolonged downturn in the future, it could feel uncomfortable — particularly in a world accustomed to quick results. Yet volatility does not negate long-term opportunity. In fact, periods of uncertainty have historically laid the groundwork for future growth.
While the pace of information may have accelerated, the principles of successful investing have not changed. A thoughtful plan, proper diversification, and the discipline to stay focused on long-term objectives remain powerful advantages.
Market cycles may evolve, but perspective remains one of the most valuable assets an investor can hold.
The Inevitability of Bear (and Bull!) Markets Since 1973
| Time Period | Bear/Bull | # Months | Return |
| November 1973 to September 1974 | Bear | 11 | -37% |
| October 1974 to June 1981 | Bull | 81 | 183% |
| July 1981 to June 1982 | Bear | 12 | -42% |
| July 1982 to July 1987 | Bull | 61 | 195% |
| August 1987 to November 1987 | Bear | 4 | -26% |
| December 1987 to December 1989 | Bull | 25 | 33% |
| January 1990 to October 1990 | Bear | 10 | -22% |
| November 1990 to April 1998 | Bull | 90 | 149% |
| May 1998 to August 1998 | Bear | 4 | -28% |
| September 1998 to August 2000 | Bull | 24 | 103% |
| September 2000 to September 2002 | Bear | 25 | -45% |
| October 2002 to May 2008 | Bull | 68 | 138% |
| June 2008 to February 2009 | Bear | 9 | -45% |
| March 2009 to January 2020 | Bull | 131 | 113% |
| February 2020 to March 2020 | Bear | 2 | -23% |
| April 2020 to Current | Bull | 71 | 156% |
Austin Wealth Management Team | 250-334-5606 | austinwealth@rbc.com | LaraAustin.com
This publication is not intended as nor does it constitute tax or legal advice. Readers should consult their own lawyer, accountant or other professional advisor when planning to implement a strategy. The chart is used for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect future values or changes. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
