Miami real estate is not slowing down. It is sorting itself.
That is the headline as we look toward the fall buying and selling season.
According to recent data from MIAMI REALTORS, Miami-Dade total home sales rose 7.9% year over year, with single-family sales up 10.5% and condo sales up 5.4%. But the real story is inventory: single-family homes in the county are sitting at 5.2 months of supply, which is considered a balanced market, while existing condos are at 12.9 months, giving condo buyers far more leverage.
Translation: if you own a well-located single-family home in the Upper Eastside, Miami Shores, Belle Meade, Morningside, Shorecrest, or nearby neighborhoods, you are not in the same market as every headline about “softening.” You are in a market where the right house, priced correctly and marketed aggressively, can still command attention.
Now add politics.
Florida voters are expected to decide in November on a major property tax amendment that would expand the homestead exemption for non-school taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, if approved by 60% of voters.
The practical impact? Expect more “wait and see” behavior from some sellers, especially long-term owners. But waiting for tax clarity can also mean missing the market window where inventory, buyer urgency, and pricing power line up.
The other major issue is capital gains. Under current federal law, many homeowners can exclude up to $250,000 of gain from tax, or $500,000 for married couples filing jointly, when selling a primary residence. A proposed federal bill, the More Homes on the Market Act, would raise those limits to $500,000 and $1 million. However, at press time, it has only been introduced and referred to committee.
For long-time Miami owners, this matters. A home bought 20 or 30 years ago may have appreciated dramatically. Some owners want to downsize, or better yet, rightsize, but they hesitate because the tax math feels punishing.
My advice: do not make a lifestyle decision based on a bill that has not passed. Make the decision based on your real numbers. What is your current tax basis? What improvements can be documented? What would you actually net? What would your next chapter cost?
Fall 2026 will reward clarity. Sellers who price with discipline will win. Buyers who understand the difference between a house market and a condo market will find opportunity. And long-term owners considering a move should start with a tax advisor and a real market valuation before assuming they are “stuck.”
Miami is still Miami. The market moves fast, but the smartest people in the room are not guessing. They are preparing.
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