I began selling real estate in the East Bay in 1998. Since then, I have had the opportunity to see many kinds of boom-and-bust economies. I was there for the dot-com bust, the savings and loan scandal and its aftermath, the great recession; and now, riding towards us like a great economic savior, is the AI boom. San Francisco is already seeing the results in its housing market, with crazy double-digit year-over-year sales growth.
We are less likely to see the same sort of incursion into our East Bay cities, just because of the housing stock we have, the commutes people would have to make, and the fact that there really is a wait-and-see attitude on the part of consumers caused by the war in Iran, the cost of staples, and the interest rate hikes.
A fair amount of data shows tech wealth showing up in real estate sales. Still, just as the tide of wealthier young tech workers can afford higher home prices, it also creates barriers to homeownership for the vast majority of people living in our communities. Hence, the statistics show a two-part story.
Behring Company is attempting to build an 83,000-square-foot complex in Oakland; 20,000 square feet of this is designated for computing/data center use. The rest would combine a 39-story residential building and office space at the site where Berkeley Lab originally housed its advanced computing in 1999 and formally dedicated it as the Oakland Scientific Facility in 2001. About 16,000 square feet of the building was dedicated to computing and data use. So, there is precedent for the proposed site, and it also proposes a lot of new housing in an area with a huge need for affordable housing. Oakland and its economy would benefit. It’s hard to know what the ramifications of this enormous drain on resources would cost the city and our communities.
Tech-generated wealth has had a huge input into our economy over the past decades. Teachers and sales workers receive less than half the median tech worker income. So, for the most part, the people who deliver our mail, serve our food, teach our children, and nurse our elderly are very likely to be shut out of the housing market we currently have to provide.
Oakland and Berkeley, with their vibrant cultures, should never be framed as cheaper alternatives to San Francisco housing. Our community needs to remain intact, even as we welcome the economic opportunity these new residents and businesses create. Finding ways to subsidize housing and give new businesses and entrepreneurs opportunities to thrive is essential to preserving what we value about living here.
I encourage everyone who cares about our neighborhoods to get involved in the conversations shaping this future. Your voice matters. Together, we can help ensure that Oakland and Berkeley continue to reflect the values and diversity that make them so special.
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
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