The San Carlos residential real estate market has been enjoying a quiet but steady rebound since 2024, when the most recent slide that was caused by post-pandemic interest rate hikes finally found its bottom. You may recall that in May 2022, the Federal Reserve initiated what would be 11 consecutive rate hikes over the next 16 months, which put a quick end to the free-money party we were all indulging in during the COVID years and sent the local real estate market into a brief tailspin.
For the first nine months of 2026, the total sales volume for all residential properties in San Carlos, which includes townhomes and single-family residences, tallied just under $650M. That figure was a healthy increase of 19% from the same period last year, and a whopping 44% jump from the same period just two years ago in 2024. That’s a pretty healthy rebound by any account.
What’s driving this increase? There are actually two main factors. First, the average price of a single-family home sold in San Carlos for the first three quarters of this year was $2.910M, which is easily the highest figure ever recorded for the first nine months of a year. With just a few months remaining, it’s a safe bet that 2026 will set a new record for the average sales price of a home in San Carlos—perhaps over $3M.
The second factor is the sheer number of homes that have sold. Despite the number of new listings (240) remaining flat from last year, the number of those listings that actually sold has jumped dramatically. So far this year, 202 single-family homes have traded hands, which represents an increase of 15% from last year, and a leap of 34% from the recent bottom of the market in 2024.
In a nutshell, sales volume is at an all-time high even though San Carlos homes are getting more expensive. But the big question on everyone’s mind now is whether this rebound can continue, because there are some challenges on the horizon for the San Carlos real estate market. Persistent inflation is driving up the cost of borrowing for everyone, regardless of whether you’re buying a new home, a tank of gas, or a pound of ground beef. Home mortgage interest rates have also been on a steady climb and recently surpassed the 7% mark, which is the highest level in three years. Many experts predict that we could see 8% interest rates by the end of the year.
If recent history is any guide, the market does not react well when rates go this high. It’s exactly what caused the market to stumble in 2023 and 2024. This time around, the impact may be tempered somewhat by the sheer amount of cash that tech buyers are bringing to the table.
We’re in for a few interesting months ahead so buckle up!
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